Tune in for weekly essays and analysis exploring soccer, sports betting, and the near-impossible challenge of making rational, successful bets. But don’t worry — I’ve built an advanced algorithmic model in Python that can forecast underdog winners with absolute, 100% certainty.

You can probably tell I’m joking. Predicting match outcomes is incredibly difficult. The success rate for sports bettors cashing their parlays is often as low as 5%. It’s a wonder how “Twitter (or X) warriors” so often find the confidence to critique professional NBA players’ stats when their own parlay hit rates are about as low as Patrick Beverley’s free-throw percentage.

But shit, there’s a billion-dollar quantitative forecasting industry built on predicting uncertainty — from the direction of the stock market and political elections to, apparently, even who the next Pope will be. So there’s gotta be money to be made, right? Honestly, I’m just as curious as you are.

As I’ve worked on developing my “100% foolproof algorithmic forecasting model,” one thing that’s piqued my curiosity is this: why do rational people keep spending their hard-earned money on a parlay with a 5% chance of success? Is it the risk? The thrill?

We’ll explore all of that — and more — as we dig into the reasoning behind both rational and not-so-rational sports betting, starting with my sport of choice (commonly referred to in the U.S. as soccer), but more properly known as football.

In the weeks to come, we’ll examine what rational decision-making looks like in sports betting — if it even exists. We’ll also take a closer look at the psychology behind betting: what drives people to keep placing losing wagers, and, most importantly, how to actually get better at it.

It’s not impossible — just extremely difficult. Over the next few weeks, we’ll dive into the logic behind betting decisions through tweaked machine learning models in Python that will, hopefully, help us make more successful bets — while also dabbling in a bit of coding and data analytics along the way.

Who knows — maybe somewhere along the way, you’ll be inspired to build your own “100% foolproof” model. As we try to predict underdog winners and unpack the complex psychology behind sports betting, I hope you enjoy your time here.

Join me on this journey as we explore the sweet, forbidden fruit of sports betting, crack open its shell, peer into its crevices, and see what silver linings exist. And maybe, just maybe, make a little money while we’re at it.

Welcome, to THE FIELD!